Bolthausen–Sznitman scaling-limit conjecture for the ancestral partition process

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For each fixed sample size k≥1k\ge1, let (Πtk,N,t≥0)(\Pi_t^{k,N},t\ge0) be the ancestral partition process of a population of size NN, restricted to the sample, and let (Πtk,t≥0)(\Pi_t^k,t\ge0) denote the restriction to [k][k] of a Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent. Bolthausen–Sznitman scaling-limit conjecture. After speeding up time by a factor (log⁡N)3(\log N)^3, for every k≥1k\ge1,

(Πt(log⁡N)3k,N,t≥0)→d(Πtk,t≥0)(\Pi_{t(\log N)^3}^{k,N},t\ge0)\overset{d}{\to}(\Pi_t^k,t\ge0)

in the sense of finite-dimensional distributions. This predicts that the genealogy of a fixed sample converges to the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent on the time scale (log⁡N)3(\log N)^3; the source describes the supporting arguments as convincing but not fully rigorous.

References

Primary source

Nathanael Berestycki, “Recent progress in coalescent theory”, arXiv:0909.3985 (2009).

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