Variance-growth conjecture for interval-graph estimators

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Let X(∞)X(\infty) be the limiting estimator produced by the memoryless iterative process on an interval graph of length nn, and let Z(∞)Z(\infty) be the benchmark estimator used in the paper. Variance-growth conjecture.

Var⁡[X(∞)]∝nVar⁡[Z(∞)].\operatorname{Var}[X(\infty)]\propto \sqrt{n}\operatorname{Var}[Z(\infty)].

The paper motivates this claim from the conjectured Gaussian coefficient profile: although the mean-square error tends to zero, the iterative estimator becomes increasingly inefficient relative to Z(∞)Z(\infty) as the interval length grows. Its precise asymptotic meaning and proof remain open.

References

Primary source

Elchanan Mossel and Omer Tamuz, “Iterative Maximum Likelihood on Networks”, arXiv:0904.4903 (2009).

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