Determinantal equations conjecture for hidden Markov model varieties

At least 16 years old · documented by

Let Σ\Sigma be the alphabet, let gn,d\mathbf{g}_{n,d} denote the parameterization of the relevant hidden Markov model, and let p=(p(v))v∈Σnp=(p(v))_{v\in\Sigma^n} be a string function. For words vi,wjv_i,w_j with ∣wjvi∣≤n|w_jv_i|\le n, form the matrix whose (i,j)(i,j)-entry is p(wjvi)p(w_jv_i). Determinantal equations conjecture. Let n≥2d−1n\ge 2d-1. Then

(p(v))v∈Σn∈image⁡(gn,d)‾(p(v))_{v\in\Sigma^n}\in\overline{\operatorname{image}(\mathbf{g}_{n,d})}

if and only if

det [p(wjvi)]1≤i,j≤d+1=0\text{\rm det~}[p(w_jv_i)]_{1\le i,j\le d+1}=0

for all choices of words v1,…,vd+1,w1,…,wd+1v_1,\ldots,v_{d+1},w_1,\ldots,w_{d+1} such that ∣wjvi∣≤n|w_jv_i|\le n. This gives determinantal equations for the Zariski closure of the hidden Markov model parameterization, addressing the problem of describing that variety by its invariants.

References

Primary source

Alexander Schoenhuth, “Equations for hidden Markov models”, arXiv:0901.3749 (2009).

Progress summary

Refreshed
Open

The conjecture remains unresolved: the original 2009 paper states it, but no later proof, counterexample, or verification was found.

The determinantal-equations conjecture, stated as Conjecture 3.5 in a 2009 paper, proposes that for n≥2d−1n \ge 2d-1 the vanishing of all specified (d+1)×(d+1)(d+1) \times (d+1) determinants exactly characterizes the Zariski closure of the hidden Markov model parameterization. The source presents this as a conjecture, not a theorem.

Current status (as of August 2026): The conjecture is unresolved; no publicly retrieved source establishes a proof, counterexample, or subsequent resolution.

Sources

Solutions 0

No solutions have been posted yet.